Thursday, January 28, 2016

Thinking about the mini crisis caused by falling oil prices

The price of crude oil had fallen from US$110 to US$30 (-70%). Assuming oil prices remain low for a few years, many industries will be impacted:

  1. Oil exploration and support services companies are at risk of not receiving payment from their customers who are unable to pay because they are earning a lot less now. In Singapore. oil rig builders, Keppel Corp and Semb Corp Industries (Semb Marine) had already announced staff reduction and projects deferrment.
  2. Manufacturing companies supplying steel and other peripheral materials to build oil rigs will also earn less because fewer oil rigs are to be built.
  3. Communications companies supplying satellite communications for oil rigs to be connected to land officers will also earn less.
  4. Housing rental market in these oil producing countries will have increased vacancy as expatriates return home. However, the workforce shift may not be signficant because oil exploration work is mostly done by machines and construction done by locals anyway.
  5. Salesmen will lose jobs. Oil traders, bank loan arrangers, and the 101 middlemen who get commission cuts along the value chain.
  6. Banks and insurance companies with exposure to clients mentioned above will be at risk, somehow or another. However, banks and insurance companies are in a risk balancing business in the first place, so it's expected to have bad debt. Client selection becomes the key differentiating factor. In Singapore, DBS, OCBC and UOB all have some level of exposure, but I feel that <10% is still within a manageable range. Which bank is most exposed to the struggling oil and gas sector?

Assuming people lose jobs, will there be transferable skill sets?

  1. Salesmen will enter the tech or other new booming industries.
  2. Engineers will look for other jobs, maybe in offshore construction, such as solar farms on sea, or maybe underwater tunnels or living environments.
  3. Manufacturers will be forced to reduce costs by improving their product manufacturing processes.
  4. Explorators will be forced to reduce costs and look for alternative ways to get oil cheaper. 
  5. Advocates for alternative energies will be forced to reduce costs because cost savings is no longer the reason to switch.
Overall, I see depressed oil prices as a catalyst for businesses to transform to lower expense and look for new business areas.


In this mini crisis, I will fish for companies that continually manage their expenses well, have positive cash flow and invest in research and productivity improvements.

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