Thinking about the mini crisis caused by falling oil prices

The price of crude oil had fallen from US$110 to US$30 (-70%). Assuming oil prices remain low for a few years, many industries will be impacted:

1. Oil exploration and support services companies are at risk of not receiving payment from their customers who are unable to pay because they are earning a lot less now. In Singapore. oil rig builders, Keppel Corp and Semb Corp Industries (Semb Marine) had already announced staff reduction and projects deferrment.
2. Manufacturing companies supplying steel and other peripheral materials to build oil rigs will also earn less because fewer oil rigs are to be built.
3. Communications companies supplying satellite communications for oil rigs to be connected to land officers will also earn less.
4. Housing rental market in these oil producing countries will have increased vacancy as expatriates return home. However, the workforce shift may not be signficant because oil exploration work is mostly done by machines and construction done by locals anyway.
5. Salesmen will lose jobs. Oil traders, bank loan arrangers, and the 101 middlemen who get commission cuts along the value chain.
6. Banks and insurance companies with exposure to clients mentioned above will be at risk, somehow or another. However, banks and insurance companies are in a risk balancing business in the first place, so it's expected to have bad debt. Client selection becomes the key differentiating factor. In Singapore, DBS, OCBC and UOB all have some level of exposure, but I feel that <10% is still within a manageable range. Which bank is most exposed to the struggling oil and gas sector?

Assuming people lose jobs, will there be transferable skill sets?

1. Salesmen will enter the tech or other new booming industries.
2. Engineers will look for other jobs, maybe in offshore construction, such as solar farms on sea, or maybe underwater tunnels or living environments.
3. Manufacturers will be forced to reduce costs by improving their product manufacturing processes.
4. Explorators will be forced to reduce costs and look for alternative ways to get oil cheaper. 
5. Advocates for alternative energies will be forced to reduce costs because cost savings is no longer the reason to switch.

Overall, I see depressed oil prices as a catalyst for businesses to transform to lower expense and look for new business areas.

In this mini crisis, I will fish for companies that continually manage their expenses well, have positive cash flow and invest in research and productivity improvements.

Staying calm in rough waters

There are many similarities between facing paper losses on our investments and diving in strong currents. Weather conditions can vary widely but fundamentals remain the same -- be prepared before you dive (into the sea or investments), make sure you can swim well, stay calm and regulate your breathing, be aware of your surroundings and follow your navigation tools. I don't dive but I did pass my dive test to get an open water diving "license".

Personally, diving isn't my cup of tea. I was a good swimmer so it was very easy for me, but I didn't feel attracted to the sport. Investment, on the other hand, had a strange appeal. The satisfaction from being able to "forecast" made me feel like a prophet. In reality, there was no prophet, just lots of analysis and number crunching which anybody determined enough could derive.

To share a benchmark measure of my threshold for boring activities, when I was in secondary school, I completed my maths ten-year-series (TYS) twice. I can spend a weekend just reading a 500-page novel. I can drag myself to swim everyday so that I can reduce my sprint time by 1 second.

In investing, patience is a virtue. All things equal, the most patient usually ends up as the biggest winner. When one is patient, one is usually able to be calmer than others. When one sees a shark approaching for the first time, the one who is calm and can recall prep drills probably has a greater chance of survival. In investing, when one sees steep market corrections for the first time, the one who is calm and can recall textbook analysis of market corrections and crashes has a greater chance of not losing money. It's ok to earn less, just as long as you don't lose more. Never lose money unnecessarily. So if you are impatient, it is still possible to be calm and survive as an investor.

Everyone needs to weather a few crisises. The experience enriches one if one chooses to be enriched by it. Although I had only weathered through the SARS, lehman and 2009 crashes, I would say that staying invested and continuously studying companies when everybody said the markets were crashing like never before made me aware of the need to hold cash and be on a constant look out for value investments. If you were caught with your pants down, just make sure you have your pants more securely fastened in the next crisis. Constantly sitting out of the market will breed more fear and lost opportunities to learn how to weather storms.

Being prepared before one even starts investing means having cash, having your shopping list ready, being aware of the economic situations around the world. Being prepared also means being able to resist temptations to spend money that is sitting in the bank and ignoring the salespersons at banks trying to convince you to part with your money. Every $1 adds up, even if it is just a cup of coffee. Money spent on investments should be money one can afford to lose completely because that is the worst case scenario.

Knowing how to invest isn't important. Knowing what you are investing in is the most important. Buying a plot of land in Texas that gives you 20% annual yield? Buying wines that can be resold at a profit after a few years of holding the stock? Buying a shares of a casino company? There is no right answer to how to invest. Our characters reflect how we invest.

Everybody knows how to invest. Every decision we make in our lives is an investment. We decide whether to spend $5 at a hawker centre or $20 at a restaurant. We decide whether to eat fried oyster or chicken soup. We decide whether to sign up for music classes. We decide whether we want to buy insurance plans and how much to be insured for. We decide the school we attend, the jobs we work at, the friends we hang out with, the families we marry, etc. Every decision is an investment of our time and energy and money with a corresponding return. The yield is then how much we get in return for the decision we make, tangible or intangible, our value systems kick in to calibrate a measure of yield to aid us in our decision-making process.

So before you rush off to buy a book on how to invest or how to be rich or retire early, stop and ask yourself how buying a book on how to invest will help you in your objectives. The money is probably funding the writer's early retirement.

Know what you are buying and spending on. Observe and look for businesses that are profitable. Before long, you will realise that every second in your life is an investment decision and that conscious effort to evaluate your actions will translate to a need to want to buy certain (profitable) companies. That's when you take action and part with your money. That's the conviction every investor needs.

That's when you realised that you are still calm when your portfolio is suffering paper losses. You know that dividends will still appear in your bank account every month because the companies you invest in have profitable businesses. Remember that stress is created when you don't know what to do or what will happen. To reduce stress, you need to have the answers to those two questions or just simply not be involved in the investing process.

道、德、仁、义、礼、智、信

老子《道德经》三十七章：

上德不德，是以有德；下德不失德，是以无德。上德无为，而无以为；上仁为之，而无以为；上义为之，而有以为；上礼为之，而莫之应，则攘臂而扔之。故失道而后德，失德而后仁，失仁而后义，失义而后礼。夫礼者，忠信之薄，而乱之首也。前识者，道之华，而愚之始也。是以大丈夫居其厚，不居其薄；居其实，不居其华。故去彼取此。
老子认为，上德近道，下德近仁。以大道立天下，不讲德自有德；以仁爱为旗帜，好讲德常缺德。以自然为本，由本及末的顺序是：自然、道、德、仁、义、礼、智、信、愚，称为“天下式”。

while we were discussing project requirements, suddenly someone talked about this... thought provoking when you try to apply this to your tender specs lol 

my obsession with the buddha

I had never read Buddhist books in Chinese before. I tried to read those free-to-distribute chinese books, but not one held my attention. The books I had read before were all english translations and interpretations. From there I concluded that Buddhists do not believe in a god as creator, but was more a believer of existence and reincarnation of beings, each reincarnation cultivates the self to a higher order being. Buddha was hence a state of an enlightened mind. Nirvana was the heavenly realm where the scriptures call the after world, or literally translated from chinese, western world. That has been the faith I had since 1999.

When I read a scripture in Chinese, I was surprised that there was mention of a god whom we seek wisdom, but that god isn't Buddha. Buddha was usually interpreted as an enlighten state of mind. Some interpret that Buddha as an end destination. Some interpret the Buddha as path free of material needs. Whichever the interpretation, it can't be too for from the truth, as we can see the monks all over the world believing in the same faith.

This moment, my interpretation of Buddha is life without material needs. This life co-exists with what we know as reality. Some believe that if we remove our material needs from our reality world, then the reality and Buddha world is one. Whether we choose to remove our material needs from reality is a choice. Some believe in giving away their wealth to help the poor as a gesture of removing material needs. Some see material needs as greed.

The reality is that we live in a material world where everyone, even monks, need to eat, sleep, work for money. The monks work in the temple, teach Buddhist classes, and if their salary don't go to themselves, it's to the temple, to buy food for him to eat, to pay the utilities bills for his temple lodge, the chair he sits, the books he uses, the clothes he wears, so I feel that the whole chase for a life without material needs is purely symbolic than practical or purposeful.

Assuming a dualistic nature, and descartes 'i think, therefore i am', we will be able to come to terms with a material reality coexisting with a life without materials and at the same time experience the life without materials as reality. The concept of life without materials could be seen as reality as you feel it, moments where you are free from material needs such as your bed time, prayer or meditation time, a time where you feel in tune with the universe. It could also be seen as the spiritual realm/dimension that exists with the physical reality realm which we all convince ourselves to be living in.

Assuming a non-dualistic nature, then only one realm can be the reality, and the only way to achieve a life without material needs is to have a life without material needs.

I believe in duality. I live a life in the physical reality, and enrich my physical life with the insights gained from the spiritual realm. I can't remember what the actual words were in the book, but it was something along the line that says, the buddha is outside of you, but at work, it's with you.

And I am not a buddhist, I have multi faiths.

transcending to paradise

Today was the final day of the funeral and monks were engaged from this organisation called Heart for Peace. The lead monk is Bhikkhu Buddha Dhatu, who led the prayers with his team of 9 - 3 men, 3 women, and 3 young boys. As there were a lot of preparations to be done for the prayers and many people moving about, that strange chill suddenly came back, and I knew that something was clinging onto me again. I engrossed myself deeply in the prayers by the 9 as I felt that the monk was emitting energies. He believes that he helps human beings go to paradise. Throughout the session, I saw his paradise. It was a space with a lotus and many bright spots of light around it. As it was the first time I saw this image, I was quite sure that it was from him.

Those shivers continued and a feeling of uneasiness swarmed over me. The prayers required us to walk around the coffin 3 times, and each time, I had the strong urge not to look at the body, so I briefly glimpsed, as a form of respect. It was as if I had wandered off for a few days, and then suddenly got called back, and I don't know why. The prayers were indeed effective because at the end of all the praying, I felt that I was back to normal, so I know that the grandma's soul must have transcended to paradise.

I was grateful to be part of the experience, and wonder whether the others felt the same. I felt extremely serene and at ease. After everything ended, I went to read the monk's book, because he said we can learn more by reading his book. After reading, I refreshed my memory of what I used to tell myself, that I need to do good deeds, for a better next life. Of course we may say that we are what we are now because we worked hard for it, but I believe in karma, and that a past life of good deeds results in a good present life. For example, if your past life was a nurse, and you served many patients, then the good karma accumulated results in a good present life, less hardship and burdens. However, if we take advantage of the good life and forget about serving the community, then our next life will not be as good. So then we wonder why we bother about our next life... It's just so that we have a peace of mind when we leave our bodies, that we have done many good deeds in the present life, and we are moving on to a better next life, with no regrets.

feeling the end of life

The last time I ever did something this bizarre was 12 years ago. I linked my subconscious with my grandma's. It was a conscious action of mine because I saw signs, and felt like a calling. 4 saturdays ago, I had the urge to visit her, so I did, with yaya. 3 saturdays ago, I had the same urge, so I was supposed to go, but my mudder last-minute told me not to go because grandma was coughing. The following monday, she was admitted to the hospital for pneumonia. She was getting better, until 2 saturdays ago, everything took a bad turn. 4 June, she was in ICU, and also yaya's first day of school. After settling yaya in, I went to visit her. I passed some energy to her, and after a few minutes, I was drained, I have not been cultivating. After thinking about the past events, and also that day when I happened to be on leave to visit her, I felt that I was meant to be there.

So I headed to the waterloo st temple to regain the energy I gave away, and linked my subconscious with my grandma's, so that I could continue to channel energy. What I never knew was that by doing that, I was actually being affected by her thoughts. I had a very strong urge to live. I wanted to wake up. It was very confusing for me because I didn't know why I was feeling all the feelings I had. I didn't know that I was affected by her thoughts until I woke up this morning. Friday night, I went for my taiji class in the evening, and after that, had to go to the hospital, because everyone was summoned to see her. When I saw her, her fingertips were all blue, and I felt the strong urge to channel again. After 15 minutes, I was drained totally and my whole body turned cold. There was a strong will to live. After 30 minutes, someone came out and said that her fingertips were back to normal. Everyone's spirits were lifted. I headed back home for the night.

I went back to the waterloo st temple on saturday morning to regain my energy. I could still feel the will to live, but while channeling, I kept losing the image of her. I did not know that she had passed away by then, until much later. I received an sms in the late morning saying that she passed away before 2 am. It was freaky, because the same night, I woke up before 2 am and I couldn't sleep. After forcing myself back to sleep, 6 am I was awake again, I really wasn't myself.

We all gathered at the grandma's house at 3 pm to receive the body at 4 pm. I kept shivering the moment I stepped into her house. At certain parts of the house, I had goose bumps. It was freaky because I didn't know what was clinging on to me. There was a strong feeling of fear. Of course, it also didn't make sense to me why I was feeling the fear I was feeling. I kept shivering, not that I was feeling cold, I was sweating under the sun, but that shiver drove me crazy. At night I couldn't sleep. I had a strong fear to sleep.

The next morning I woke up, I felt like I had been enlightened. All the feelings I was feeling was that of my grandma's because I linked my subconscious to hers. When I went to her house again on today (sunday), there was no more clinging feeling. No more shivers, goosebumps, fear. When I looked at her body again, the aura around her head was no longer there. Her soul must have left her body. And everything that I had been feeling, made sense. It was freaky. I am just short of someone to tell me what was clinging on to me the whole day yesterday, and I don't dare to ask the lady spiritual healer my aunt brought along to help out in the wake, especially when my aunt said that the spiritual healer can see what we can't see.

The end of life was a mix of confusion, will to live, and fear.

what do overworked and overweight have in common?

What do you think your boss is expecting to hear when he/she asks you whether you feel overworked?

It set me thinking about what it means to be overworked. As usual, the logical mind tookover to refine the problem statement. Personally, I feel that the determinant for overworked is the same as that of overweight. One doesn't need to ask a person whether he is overweight. We work up a chart, look for a height, and the corresponding weight, then anything more than the weight listed for that height is overweight.

At work, there are similar charts, you look at the person's 'height' in terms of salary grade, and the 'weight' in terms of the amount and type of work, you will know who is overworked and who is not. Because ultimately, as the boss, you come up with this chart as a ruler to measure your staff.

Just as how some people feel fat and keep telling people that they are fat when they are not, because the scales don't lie. Similarly, people who feel overworked and keep telling people that they are overworked could be not overworked if a scale is used. The weight-height chart is also not something cast in stone, people adjust and adapt for their own use, so I don't see why salary grade-work load charts can't work the same way. Just to give an example, the 'height' can be seen as the salary amount, and the 'weight' as the cost (total contract cost + internal manpower cost + overheads) of the projects.

The power of double

My friend commented that I havent been posting much on fb, which is true. Over the past 1 month, my workload doubled miraculously, but the time I have stayed the same, which meant that my response time for my original work doubled.

Simple logic right?

The power of doubling my workload in one month forced me to make changes to the way I work, for better or for worse lol. The most drastic, very unlike me thing I did was to ask others to do things that I would normally have done, like asking my user to arrange meeting, asking my user to tabulate a spreadsheet for tender evaluation, and talking with people over the phone instead of meeting them face-to-face.

The next change I observed in my behaviour is that I talk and write less. For e.g, normally I will explain to you the problem until you understand, but when I dont have time, I don't even explain to you and just tell you, once resolve, you test, ok, case close. I only talk when really necessary, otherwise I just email minimally. I reply emails only if the world will stop or the train will crash if I don't reply. Normally I will also ask people what their immediate task is to understand what my team mates are doing, that also disappeared.

In terms of tasks to be completed by me in the same working hours, it is still the same, but because more issues will accumulate before I process them, resolution actions became more efficient when there are similar issues. So maybe... Economy of scale theory applies to my queue. Workload doesn't really matter, I will end up reprioritising what to do, tasks stay longer in queue, but they still get done.

2011 in a page

Unlike most years, this year was spectacularly different because yaya has joined the family. On the self development front, this year was very stressful for me, never had so much stress continuously day after day, mainly because the Hubby didn't want a kid, so I have to do everything that is interfering with his life. I am opposite from the norm, stress makes me weaker, not stronger. So I remove sources of stress, rather than face it because I am very destructive.

I was very grateful to have supportive bosses and colleagues who covered my duties during my maternity leave, and also allowed me to take 2 days of leave weekly for 2 months as I slowly adjust back to working life. They also had to put up with my milking schedules at work and days where I had to take leave when yaya was sick.

Some of you know that I get incessant nags from the hubby whenever I don't reach home by 7 pm and the bus 145 which I take from orpit to Harbourfront mrt was always crowded and infrequent. I still had to fetch yaya to and fro the childcare daily. As stress is always caused by not knowing what to do, I was frequently stressed by my homebound travel route. Car option is beyond reach.

The Hubby also nags at me to change my boss, easier said than done, because of my workload. I was held back at work a few times but gradually got more frequent, and to add on the self depreciating factor that my boss said I wasn't doing much work, and when I confronted her statement, she said I had no milestones delivered, it became the last straw that erupted the volcano building up inside me.

I changed my job despite many ppl advising me against citing the need to often take leave to take care of yaya and also stress from new work environments. But I remove stress factors, I don't work well with stress, so changing my job meant I had to be very selective with the job scope, location, boss, pay, ... I feel very fortunate to bump into a job with similar job scope, hence gentle learning curve, near mrt, so from my door step to my desk takes 40 min, pay higher so Hubby accepted my job more, workload slightly lesser, boss wise, so far so good lol.

Another change I decided to make was to change childcare next year when yaya turns 18 months from cherie hearts to Mindchamps. After a visit to the school, I was sold because all the kids were so alert, and they have gym, music, baking classes included in the programme. It's $1.4k/month after gov subsidy, but I still decided to go ahead with it because yaya had been falling sick very often recently. We will start her in the new school in June. When I ask ppl about Mindchamps, they tell me it's good but very atas, only for rich ppl, but I believe, 1 cent 1 good, money can always earn back, but yaya's health cannot.

I am very demanding when I want to, so I asked the childcare teacher what can be done to prevent yaya from falling sick so often, she told me that all other children are ok. Immediately I failed her, but I gave my demands, to wash her hands every hour, wash the toys before giving to her, for at least 2 weeks to give her time to rebuild her immunity.

So money is still important, this year has been a year with high spending. Medical bills for yaya is easily around 5k. Saving on the childcare would just translate to more medical bills and more downtime at work which also translates to $$. Of course there is still the stress option to hire a maid but I am sure it will cause me stress because hubby, my parents and in-laws will definitely tell me to tell the maid to do this and that and complain to me when things are not done to their satisfaction.

In terms of objectives for next year, I will continue to work hard at keeping all of us free from sickness.