Trend of Un-linked Covid-19 Cases

All the while, we have been able to trace the Covid-19 cases to patient 0. On 21 Mar, we had the first 6 un-linked cases so I started monitoring the numbers and reading up on how the numbers will grow for uncontrolled situations.

I tabulated the number of un-linked new Covid-19 local transmission cases, i.e. they didn't travel overseas (not import case), and they don't know anyone who was infected (known cases).

21/3 = 6

22/3 = 2

23/3 = 6

24/3 = 13

Total = 27 new unlinked cases

On 22/3, the government announced social distancing measures, such as leaving 1 metre spacing when queuing to order/pay/enter restaurant for food, cannot sit opposite a stranger at the hawker centre, etc. Singaporeans or Permanent Residents who travel despite advisories will have to pay the full unsubsidised cost of hospitalisation due to Covid-19. 80% of the new cases were imported cases, and there were still 1000 local travellers daily.

On 24/3, the government announced additional measures such as closure of tuition and enrichment centres, cinemas, night clubs, suspension of church/mosque services, limiting no more than 10 people seated together, etc. Penalties for people who did not comply with their Stay Home Notice (SHN) after returning from overseas became stiffer. There was also specific instruction for those returning from the UK and USA to serve SHN in hotels. There was even a recruitment advertisement for $10/hour temp workers to check on people who are required to serve SHN.  This is a sign of desperation. 

The Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Kiat scheduled a public address on 26/3 to announce budget measures to help businesses cope with these measures. Businesses really need the help.

Today, 25/3, the stock market rallied unexpectedly, so I decided to sell the Dairy Farm International Holdings (@$4.05) that I bought on 13/3 (@US$3.80) to lock in profit. There was also a US$0.145 dividend ex-dated 19/3, so a ~9% profit for 12 days sounded good.

As a whole, I expect more un-linked cases to be announced because these new cases -- students/young adults studying or working overseas (likely UK and USA) who are returning to Singapore because of advisories -- are not complying with SHN.

The virus levels are the highest in the first 7 days, and the most infectious. Symptoms are also milder in the first few days, such as a runny nose. To me, these jokers have been roaming about too much and because the spread doubles everyday and only becomes noticeable after 1 week, i.e. the jokers likely have been roaming since 14/3 (around the time UK was in a crisis), and then the cases was only confirmed on 21/3, in the meantime, the jokers continue to spread, and even if we try to trace and isolate, because of the exponential multiplication effect between 14/3 until today, I think we won't be able to catch up unless our contact tracers are also exponentially increasing, and I can reasonably expect 100 unlinked cases by this Sunday. Sad, but I think a lockdown is in the horizon.

I am still hugging on to my stocks and bracing for more volatility in the days ahead.